I built this calculator because I wanted to know "how many more" Ralts I needed to catch before finding a better one (the answer was 35 - yikes!).
A quick note about me: I am not a web developer. I just know some Javascript and HTML, so please be patient. If you have feedback or encounter issues, please submit a post on the PokemonSleepHMM subreddit .
Four pieces of data were taken from the incredible RaenonX site for Pokemon Sleep. Specifically:
Big thanks to @powderrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr and @noko17 for data collection and analysis on subskill distribution. RaenonX is an incredible website and all Pokemmon Sleep players should visit it, join their Discord, and become a premium subscriber if their analytical tools are helpful to you.
This calculator only computes 1 dimension at a time: either Berry, Skill, or Ingredient output.
Skills & Nature: Select your pokemon's subskills & nature.
Highest Level: Select the highest level you want to consider. In most cases, 50 or 75 is the most practical. Level 100 isn't supported right now.
Upgraded Subskills: If you want to include pokemon who have had their relevant, eligible skills upgraded in the calculation, check this box. For example, any pokemon with only Helping Speed S will have that skill upgraded to Helping Speed M. If the box is left unchecked, then it remains Helping Speed S. This checkbox does NOT affect your pokemon's skills. If you want to run a calculation with your pokemon upgraded, change the subskill manually first.
Guaranteed Gold Skills: Starting at friendship levels 10, 40, and 100, the pokemon you catch of that species will always have a gold skill in the first, second, and third slots, respectively. Select how many guaranteed gold skills you want to apply. Be aware: if you run a calculation with 0 guaranteed gold skills and receive probability odds such as 1 in 20, you should run the calculation again with 1 guaranteed gold skill applied for a more accurate probability (because every pokemon starting with the 10th catch will only have 1 of the 7 gold skills in the first slot).
Berry or Skill or Ingredient: select which output to compare against.
Ingredient Mix: Factors in the probabilities of each ingredient variation. For Berry or Skill pokemon, select "I don't care" (unless you want a specific mix from them). NOTE: Some skill pokemon can only have 2 possible ingredients, such as Magnezone, and are not supported right now.
Level 100 analysis is not supported right now.
The effects of recovery up/down natures are not included right now. In most cases, they are not hugely impactful.
Output is based on the following formulas:
Ingredient or Skill output: (1+XM+XS)/(1-HSM-HSS-HB) x NatureUp x NatureDown
XM: Ingredient Finder M or Skill Trigger M, which is 0.36 or 0 when not a subskill.
XS: Ingredient Finder S or Skill Trigger S, which is 0.18 or 0 when not a subskill
HSM: Helping Speed M, which is 0.14, or 0 when not a subskill.
HSS: Helping Speed S, which is 0.07 or 0 when not a subskill.
HB: Helping Bonus, which is 0.05 or 0 when not a subskill.
NatureUp: 1/0.9 for speed up, 1.2 for skill up natures, and 1 for everything else.
NatureDown: 1/1.1 for speed down, 0.8 for skill down natures, and 1 for everything else.
Berry output: BerryRate x BFS x 1/(1-HSM-HSS-HB) x NatureUp x NatureDown
BerryRate: relative berry rate when Ingredient Finder M or S is active: (1-pokemon's ingredient rate x (1+IFM+IFS))/(1-pokemon's ingredient rate)
IFM is 0.36, IFS is 0.18, and both are 0 when not a subskill.
BFS: 1.5 for berry specialists, 2 for everyone else, and 1x when BFS is not a subskill.
HSM: Helping Speed M, which is 0.14, or 0 when not a subskill.
HSS: Helping Speed S, which is 0.07 or 0 when not a subskill.
HB: Helping Bonus, which is 0.05 or 0 when not a subskill.
NatureUp: 1/0.9 for speed up, (1-pokemon's ingredient rate x 1.2)/(1-pokemon's ingredient rate) for ingredient up, and 1 for everything else.
NatureDown: 1/1.1 for speed down, (1-pokemon's ingredient rate x 0.8)/(1-pokemon's ingredient rate) for ingredient up, and 1 for everything else.
You will likely run into a situation like this:
Number of total possibilities: 1000
Number of better pokemon: 200
Probability of better pokemon: 12%
Why is the probability 12% and not 20%?
That's because Pokemon Sleep doesn't assign all subskills equally. The odds of getting Berry Finding S is not 1/17. Each skill color has a different weight of assignment. Gold skills are assigned 14% of the time, blue skills are assigned 33% of the time, and white skills are assigned 53% of the time. So, a specific pokemon might look like this:
BFS
Ingredient Finder M
Helping Bonus
Helping Speed S
Skill Trigger M
Nature: Adamant
And the probability of that would be as follows:
0.14/7 (chance of gold skill divided by number of gold skills left)
0.33/6 (chance of blue skill divided by number of blue skills left)
0.14/6 (chance of gold skills divided by number of gold skills left)
0.53/4 (chance of white skills by number of white skills left)
0.33/5 (chance of blue skill divided by number of blue skills left)
1/25 (chance of getting any specific nature)
So, the odds off getting this specific sequence on a pokemon is: 0.000000897%. That number is way to small to comprehend because at level 100, there are more than 18.5 million possible combinations. If you were to calculate the probability at level 25, it's more meaningful: 0.0044% chance.
To get the total proability of viable pokemon, all we do is add up all the weighted probability of each viable pokemon.
This section is for advanced users who want to adjust the weights of the calculation. The default settings are generally reasonable and don't need modification in most cases.
Same or Better mode: in some cases, you may be curious about the probability of catching a specific subskill combination, instead of trying to beat it. If you select "Same or Better" then the pokemon that have equal performance will be included in the viable pokemon calculation.
Sneaky Snacking: Check this box to see Berry output while sneaky snacking. This will nullify any ingredient boosts, as well as the pokemon's natural ingredient rate. For example, Altaria has a 25.8% ingredient rate, which means 1.35x more berries (even without any boosts) than when not sneak snacking.
Friendship Level: Enter your current friendship level to see what your catch probability is before you reach the next guaranted gold skill tier. For example, if your friendship level is 33, then the calculator will show you the odds of catching a better one within the next 6 pokemon (because the next tier starts at 40) OR how many it would take to reach 50% odds.
Helping Bonus Value: Helping Bonus is a difficult skill to value. It directly lowers your pokemon's production cycle by 5%, while also doing the same for the rest of your team. It's tied with the best skill in the game, so it's important to value it accurately. However, if your pokemon has Helping Bonus instead of Helping Speed S, it outputs 5.2% more skills/ingredients, whereas Helping Speed S outputs 7.5% more skills/ingredients. So, if you want the absolute maximum output for a single pokemon, the calculator will recommend Helping Speed S instead of Helping Bonus. But, of course, we know this is the wrong conclusion.
So to address this issue, there are two dropdowns you can adjust:
The first is for target pokemon. This will artificially increase the value of Helping Bonus on target pokemon so they are more likely to be better. Increasing this only adds viable pokemon, making it easier to find one.
The second is for your pokemon. This will artificially increase the value of Helping Bonus on your pokemon so they are more likely to be considered better. Increasing this only removes viable pokemon, making it harder to find one.
Here are the available values:
0.05 - Minimal value - a direct 5% decrease in production cycle with no extra production value from the team. In most cases, this should never be used. Helping Speed S only has 2.3% more direct output than Helping Bonus, but loses the 5% boost to the entire rest of the team.
0.07 - Equal to Helping Speed S. Mathematically, this will make HB equal to HSS, which is generally acceptable to players. If you catch a pokemon with HB instead of HSS, are you mad, even though your new pokemon will technically output fewer skills/ingredients? This is the default value.
0.14 - Equal to Helping Speed M. Mathematically, this will make HB equal to HSM. This one is trickier because there's roughly a 11% increase in output with HSM instead of HB. Are you willing to accept a 11% decrease of your single pokemon's output in exchange for a 21% increase from the rest of the team? That answer depends on the pokemon you're hunting.
0.2083 - Equal to all of the extra team production (expressed as a single "speed boost" subskill). This option accounts for the full production output of HB, and thus artificially inflates HB's importance. For example, this option makes a pokemon with only HB, which is valued at 26.3% production gain, better than Skill Trigger S or Ingredient Finder S (18% production gain) or Helping Speed S with speed up nature (19.5% production gain). So, use this option with caution.
*Note: regardless of the HB value selected, the displayed output will always use the 0.05 value to display the accurate output of your pokemon.
A few examples of adjusting this value:
If you increase the Helping Bonus value on target pokemon to 0.2083, then you are saying, "HB is so good due to production from other team members, that I'm willing to sacrifice significant skill/ingredient output to have it." Therefore, if you are trying to beat a pokemon with 1.36x output, then a pokemon with HB & speed up nature, which only has 1.17x output will be included in the results (due to its artificially inflated output of 1.4x).
Conversely, if you increase the Helping Bonus value on your pokemon to 0.2083, then you are saying, "I already have HB on a pokemon, and I am unwilling to lose that extra team production output even if that means missing out on some pokemon that perform marginally better." Therefore, if you are trying to beat a pokemon with 1.05x output, then a pokemon with Skill Trigger S, which has 1.18x output, will be omitted from the results (due to your artificially inflated output of 1.26x).
2025-04-05: added Cresselia.
2025-03-26: updated speed down nature value from 1÷1.1 to 1÷1.075 to reflect game update.
2025-03-23: added Munna line.
2025-02-19: added Paldean Wooper line and Rufflet line. Updated ingredient combination probabilities for pokemon with only 2 possible ingredients.
2025-01-03: added Pawmi line, Alolan Vulpix line, Sneasel line, and Eevee (Santa Hat). Added support for pokemon with only 2 possible ingredients. Removed beta label from banner.
2024-11-22: overhauled UI to be mobile friendly.
2024-11-13: added reset button & expanded nature selection menus.
2024-11-12: beta site launch.
2024-11-11: added ingredient mix probabilities.
2024-11-09: friendship level input added.
2024-11-07: berry output & sneaky snacking added.
2024-11-06: alpha site launch.