How to use this calculator

Four pieces of data were  taken from the incredible RaenonX  site for Pokemon Sleep. Specifically:

• Subskills distribution probabilities.

• Subskill and nature boost amounts.

• Ingredient rates.

• Ingredient mix odds.

Big thanks to @powderrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr and @noko17 for data collection and analysis on subskill distribution. RaenonX  is an incredible website and all Pokemmon Sleep players should visit it, join their Discord, and become a premium subscriber if their analytical tools are helpful to you.

Note: this calculator only computes 1 dimension at a time: either Berry, Skill, or Ingredient output. If your pokemon has mixed output, like Sceptile, or is a general support pokemon like Ampharos or Gardevoir, this calculator will not accurately reflect the output of some skills, such as BFS if you pick Skill mode. Use a different website to compute mixed outputs.

This calculator answers one question: given your current Pokémon and its subskills, what is the probability that a newly caught Pokémon of the same species will be strictly better for your chosen output mode? Enter your Pokémon's details, click calculate, and the tool tells you the probability, the odds, and how many catches it would take to have a 50% chance of catching a better one.

INSTRUCTIONS:

Your Pokemon

1. Pokémon - select the species you are trying to upgrade. Pokémon are organized into Berry, Ingredient, and Skill categories.

2. Output mode: choose what kind of output you care about:

   1. Berry - compare berry production

   2. Ingredient - compare ingredient output

   3. Skill - compare main skill trigger rate

3. Comparison level:  the level at which both your Pokémon and any potential catch are evaluated. Only the subskill slots and ingredients that are unlocked by this level are counted for both sides. Higher levels reveal more subskills and ingredients (slots unlock at levels 10, 25, 50, 75, and 100, and ingredients unlock at levels 30 and 60).

4. Subskill slots:  select the subskills your current Pokémon actually has in each slot. Only the slots unlocked at the chosen comparison level are shown.

5. Nature: select your Pokémon's nature. If you select matching Boost and Diminish stats, the calculator will automatically treat it as a neutral nature and clear those fields. Note: some species (Toxtricity variants) have restricted nature pools.

6. Mint (Your Pokémon): check this if your Pokémon is minted (i.e., has had its nature overridden with a mint item). When checked, your Pokémon's nature is treated as neutral regardless of what is selected in the nature dropdown.

Catch Settings

1. Guaranteed Gold Subskills: select your current number of guaranteed  gold skills. Pokemon below friendship level 10 have 0, and pokemon between friendship levels 10 and 40 have one. You can select how many gold skills a pokemon has after friendship level 40 in the Pokemon Sleep app.

2. Target mint: check this if you plan to mint any Pokémon you catch to fix its nature. When checked, a mint is applied to catches only if it improves performance.

3. Apply Subskill Seeds to Catches: applies subskill seeds to the relevant skills if they can be upgraded.

4. Comparison mode: choose whether you are looking for a catch that is strictly better than your current Pokémon, or the same or better. If you are just looking for the odds of catching a specific pokemon, use same or better mode.

Note: this calculator only computes 1 dimension at a time: either Berry, Skill, or Ingredient output. If your pokemon has mixed output, like Sceptile, or is a general support pokemon like Ampharos or Gardevoir, this calculator will not accurately reflect the output of some skills, such as BFS if you pick Skill mode. Use a different website for those cases.

This calculator answers one question: given your current Pokémon and its subskills, what is the probability that a newly caught Pokémon of the same species will be strictly better for your chosen output mode? Enter your Pokémon's details, click calculate, and the tool tells you the probability, the odds, and how many catches it would take to have a 50% chance of catching a better one.

INSTRUCTIONS:

Your Pokemon

1. Pokémon - select the species you are trying to upgrade. Pokémon are organized into Berry, Ingredient, and Skill categories.

2. Output mode: choose what kind of output you care about:

   1. Berry - compare berry production

   2. Ingredient - compare ingredient output

   3. Skill - compare main skill trigger rate

3. Comparison level:  the level at which both your Pokémon and any potential catch are evaluated. Only the subskill slots and ingredients that are unlocked by this level are counted for both sides. Higher levels reveal more subskills and ingredients (slots unlock at levels 10, 25, 50, 75, and 100, and ingredients unlock at levels 30 and 60).

4. Subskill slots:  select the subskills your current Pokémon actually has in each slot. Only the slots unlocked at the chosen comparison level are shown.

5. Nature: select your Pokémon's nature. If you select matching Boost and Diminish stats, the calculator will automatically treat it as a neutral nature and clear those fields. Note: some species (Toxtricity variants) have restricted nature pools.

6. Mint (Your Pokémon): check this if your Pokémon is minted (i.e., has had its nature overridden with a mint item). When checked, your Pokémon's nature is treated as neutral regardless of what is selected in the nature dropdown.

Catch Settings

1. Guaranteed Gold Subskills: select your current number of guaranteed  gold skills. Pokemon below friendship level 10 have 0, and pokemon between friendship levels 10 and 40 have one. You can select how many gold skills a pokemon has after friendship level 40 in the Pokemon Sleep app.

2. Target mint: check this if you plan to mint any Pokémon you catch to fix its nature. When checked, a mint is applied to catches only if it improves performance.

3. Apply Subskill Seeds to Catches: applies subskill seeds to the relevant skills if they can be upgraded.

4. Comparison mode: choose whether you are looking for a catch that is strictly better than your current Pokémon, or the same or better. If you are just looking for the odds of catching a specific pokemon, use same or better mode.

Advanced

1. Helping Bonus Value: you can adjust the value of Helping Bonus to account for the extra production from your teammates. Some pokemon, like a general support pokemon like Ampharos, can contribute equally to the team by either getting more skill triggers or by simply having HB. In that case, you want to set the HB value to 0.21, so all of the HB value gets included in the output. However, for ingredient pokemon, HB may be less desirable than raw ingredient output, so selecting a lower HB value will diminish its contributions. You can choose different values for your pokemon vs the target pokemon if you want. Here are the values available:

   1. 5% - the smallest possible boost to the pokemon. In almost no cases will you want to select this.

   2. 7% - equal to the pokemon having HSS. This is the lowest logical choice for HB (most of the time) as it only loses 2% production to its output while boosting the team 20%.

   3. 14% - equal to the pokemon having HSM. This is a good balance between boosting your pokemon's output while also valuing the team's extra production. This is the default value.

   4. 21% - equal to the pokemon having HSM+HSS and represents the entire production value of HB in the pokemon's output.

2. Sneaky Snacking:   when your pokemon's inventory gets full, it produces onyl berries. Enable this toggle if you use Sneaky Snacking, and it will ignore the ingredient and skill rates.

3. Pity Proc: in Pokémon Sleep, each time a Pokémon helps without triggering its skill, the a counter increases by 1. When that number reaches that pokemon's specific PityProc limit, a skill proc is guaranteed on the next help. When Pity Proc is enabled, the calculator uses the full geometric-series formula to model the true expected skill trigger rate instead of the naive flat rate. Enable this for a more accurate comparison in Skill mode.

1. Helping Bonus Value: you can adjust the value of Helping Bonus to account for the extra production from your teammates. Some pokemon, like a general support pokemon like Ampharos, can contribute equally to the team by either getting more skill triggers or by simply having HB. In that case, you want to set the HB value to 0.21, so all of the HB value gets included in the output. However, for ingredient pokemon, HB may be less desirable than raw ingredient output, so selecting a lower HB value will diminish its contributions. You can choose different values for your pokemon vs the target pokemon if you want. Here are the values available:

   1. 5% - the smallest possible boost to the pokemon. In almost no cases will you want to select this.

   2. 7% - equal to the pokemon having HSS. This is the lowest logical choice for HB (most of the time) as it only loses 2% production to its output while boosting the team 20%.

   3. 14% - equal to the pokemon having HSM. This is a good balance between boosting your pokemon's output while also valuing the team's extra production. This is the default value.

   4. 21% - equal to the pokemon having HSM+HSS and represents the entire production value of HB in the pokemon's output.

2. Sneaky Snacking:   when your pokemon's inventory gets full, it produces onyl berries. Enable this toggle if you use Sneaky Snacking, and it will ignore the ingredient and skill rates.

3. Pity Proc: in Pokémon Sleep, each time a Pokémon helps without triggering its skill, the a counter increases by 1. When that number reaches that pokemon's specific PityProc limit, a skill proc is guaranteed on the next help. When Pity Proc is enabled, the calculator uses the full geometric-series formula to model the true expected skill trigger rate instead of the naive flat rate. Enable this for a more accurate comparison in Skill mode.

4. Calculate with Healing and Energy Effects: off by default. Enable this to factor in how a Pokémon's energy-related nature affects its output. A Pokémon's energy level throughout the day influences how efficiently it works. Natures that boost energy recovery (Bold, Impish, Lax, Relaxed) tend to improve output, while natures that diminish energy recovery (Gentle, Hasty, Lonely, Mild) tend to reduce it — but the magnitude of that effect depends on how many times the team is healed each day. When enabled, a second field appears:

5. Expected heals per day: enter the number of times you expect your team to be healed during the day by an Energy For Everyone healer. The default is 4.

6. Energy Recovery Bonus Teammate: if someone on the team has ERB, it removes the most damaging effect of an energy down nature and should accounted for.

This calculator gives you a baseline catch probability based a pokemon's productivity, which assumes a an 8.5-hour sleep session, being on the team all day, and infinite inventory. For more customized analysis, please use another Pokemon Sleep website.

Output is based on the following formulas:

• Ingredient or Skill output: (1+XM+XS)/(1-HSM-HSS-HB) x NatureUp x NatureDown

  • XM: Ingredient Finder M or Skill Trigger M, which is 0.36 or 0 when not a subskill.

  • XS: Ingredient Finder S or Skill Trigger S, which is 0.18 or 0 when not a subskill

  • HSM: Helping Speed M, which is 0.14, or 0 when not a subskill.

  • HSS: Helping Speed S, which is 0.07 or 0 when not a subskill.

  • HB: Helping Bonus, which is 0.05 or 0 when not a subskill.

  • NatureUp: 1/0.9 for speed up, 1.2 for skill up natures, and 1 for everything else.

  • NatureDown: 1/1.075 for speed down, 0.8 for skill down natures, and 1 for everything else.

• Berry output: BerryRate x BFS x 1/(1-HSM-HSS-HB) x NatureUp x NatureDown

  • BerryRate: relative berry rate when Ingredient Finder M or S is active: (1-pokemon's ingredient rate x (1+IFM+IFS))/(1-pokemon's ingredient rate)

    • IFM is 0.36, IFS is 0.18, and both are 0 when not a subskill.

  • BFS: 1.5 for berry specialists, 2 for everyone else, and 1x when BFS is not a subskill.

  • HSM: Helping Speed M, which is 0.14, or 0 when not a subskill.

  • HSS: Helping Speed S, which is 0.07 or 0 when not a subskill.

  • HB: Helping Bonus, which is 0.05 or 0 when not a subskill.

  • NatureUp: 1/0.9 for speed up, (1-pokemon's ingredient rate x 1.2)/(1-pokemon's ingredient rate) for ingredient up, and 1 for everything else.

  • NatureDown: 1/1.1 for speed down,  (1-pokemon's ingredient rate x 0.8)/(1-pokemon's ingredient rate) for ingredient up, and 1 for everything else.

Pokemon Sleep doesn't assign all subskills equally. The odds of getting Berry Finding S is not 1/17. Each skill color has a different weight of assignment.  Gold skills are assigned 14% of the time, blue skills are assigned 33% of the time, and white skills are assigned 53% of the time. So, a specific pokemon might look like this:

• BFS

• Ingredient Finder M

• Helping Bonus

• Helping Speed S

• Skill Trigger M

• Nature: Adamant

And the probability of that would be as follows:

• 0.14/7 (chance of gold skill divided by number of gold skills left)

• 0.33/6 (chance of blue skill divided by number of blue skills left)

• 0.14/6 (chance of gold skills divided by number of gold skills left)

• 0.53/4 (chance of white skills by number of white skills left)

• 0.33/5 (chance of blue skill divided by number of blue skills left)

• 1/25 (chance of getting any specific nature)

So, the odds off getting this specific sequence on a pokemon is: 0.000000897%. That number is way to small to comprehend because at level 100, there are more than 18.5 million possible combinations. If you were to calculate the probability at level 25, it's more meaningful: 0.0044% chance or 1 in 227.

To get the total proability of viable pokemon, all we do is add up all the weighted probability of each viable pokemon.

• 2026-03-20: fixed a bug where Skills/Berries weren't calculating when a specific ingredient mix was selected.

• 2026-03-14: added Cutiefly and Ribombee. Added Energy calcuation mode. Revised How to Use this Calculator section.

• 2026-03-10: added compare against all ingredients mode. Applied dark mode.

• 2026-03-07: added Beta Calculator page. Launched 2.0 version of calculator after rebuilding it with Claude.ai.

• 2026-01-24: added Shuckle.

• 2026-01-01: added Cetoddle, Cetitan, Spheal (Holiday), and Togedemaru. Fixed a bug preventing Weavile calculations. Fixed a typo with Crustle's skill rate.

• 2025-12-04: fixed a typo that was preventing calculations.

• 2025-12-02: added Spiritomb. Adjusted Deliberd's skill rate to reflect game changes.

• 2025-11-06: added Bagon, Shelgon, Salamence, Trapinch, Vibrava, Flygon, Dwebble, and Crustle. Tweaked the maximum value of HB to be equal to HSM+HSS.

• 2025-10-26:  added Eevee (Witch Hat). Adjusted skill rate of Vulpix (Kanto), Ninteails (Kanto), Slowbro, Slowking, Wynaut, Wobbuffet, Comfey, and Drifblim to reflect balance changes.

• 2025-10-21: added Pumpkaboo and Gourgeist. Adjusted skill rate of Slowpoke, Leafeon, and Drifloon to reflect balance changes. 

• 2025-10-20: adjusted Gallade's probability to accurately reflect male-only odds.

• 2025-10-06: added Pokedex. Added Ampharos, Braviary, Espeon, Gardevoir, Mimikyu, and Sceptile to Pokedex.

• 2025-10-03: added Natu and Xatu.

• 2025-09-26: added Toxtricity and Toxel. Fixed bug related to Darkrai nature probabilities.

• 2025-09-24: added Darkrai.

• 2025-09-21: implemented Pity Proc and made it the default for Skill calculations. Changed default value of Helping Bonus to be equal to Helping Speed M.

• 2025-07-16: added Treekco, Grovyle, Sceptile, Torchic, Combusken, Blaziken, Mudkip, Marshtomp, Swampert, Plusle, and Minun.

• 2025-06-28: added Murkrow, Honchkrow, Mawile, and Farfetch'd. Removed "next gold skill level" warning now that players can control the number of gold skills.

• 2025-05-05: added Happiny, Chansey, and Blissey.

• 2025-04-05: added Cresselia.

• 2025-03-26: updated speed down nature value from 1÷1.1 to 1÷1.075 to reflect game update.

• 2025-03-23: added Munna and Musharna.

• 2025-02-19: added Paldean Wooper, Clodsire, Rufflet, and Braviary. Updated ingredient combination probabilities for pokemon with only 2 possible ingredients.

• 2025-01-03: added Pawmi, Pawmo, Pawmot, Alolan Vulpix, Alolan Ninetails, Sneasel, Weavile, and Eevee (Santa Hat). Added support for pokemon with only 2 possible ingredients. Removed beta label from banner.

• 2024-11-22: overhauled UI to be mobile friendly.

• 2024-11-13: added reset button & expanded nature selection menus.

• 2024-11-12: beta site launch.

• 2024-11-11: added ingredient mix probabilities.

• 2024-11-09: friendship level input added.

• 2024-11-07: berry output & sneaky snacking added.

• 2024-11-06: alpha site launch.